Saturday, October 19, 2019
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“Sell in May and Go Away” – But How Are the Public Markets Really Doing This Summer?

The old saying has been around for years. Summer vacations negatively impact markets, so unless you’re holding a portfolio of…

By editor , in The Public Markets , at August 9, 2018

The old saying has been around for years. Summer vacations negatively impact markets, so unless you’re holding a portfolio of long-term investments, sell up in May and come back to the markets in October like everybody else. But is that really true?

The answer, it would appear, is no. Indeed, CXO Advisory Group famously analyzed over a century of data a few years back and found that holding all year round is the safest strategy. But let’s forget history for the moment – what about this year?

  1. Nasdaq

Back at the start of April, the Nasdaq closed at 6870, but has been on the rise pretty much ever since. In fact, on the 8th August it posted a 7-day win streak – its first since March.

  1. Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow suffered a hit from May to June with a pretty big slump, but July was a lot better – although there’s a way to go before it matches January’s high of 26,616.

  1. S&P 500

The S&P 500 established a bit of a trend this year or rising to mid-month peaks and falling back towards the end of each month. July and August to date have arrested this somewhat though, with this being an index that is all set to pass January’s 2872 mark in the coming weeks.

  1. Russell 2000

The Russell took a 63-point dive at the end of June, but it has since recovered to 1686. This is short of July’s 1704 mark though, so all in all it’s been a steady, if unspectacular summer for this index. What’s different here though, is that there was no January high, and the summer has outperformed the winter quite considerably.

Overall, there have been a few minor nosedives this summer, but across the board the markets are in a healthy period of growth. So, for this year at least, there is no real need to worry about the summer.